Self-driving trucks: A transport service that never sleeps

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• July 21, 2022

Insight summary

Self-driving trucks are transforming the transport industry, offering greater efficiency and cost savings, but also reshaping the labor market and environmental impact. While they streamline supply chains and reduce transportation costs, these trucks raise concerns about job displacement and the need for new regulations and specialized infrastructure. This technology also brings opportunities for new job creation and advancements in other transport sectors, balancing innovation with societal adaptation.

Self-driving truck context

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted an endemic pain point within the trucking industry: significant labor shortages. The near-constant deficit of qualified truck drivers across most of the developed world further impairs supply chains across multiple sectors. To address this ongoing issue, transport companies are investing in automation and digital technologies like self-driving trucks.

Self-driving trucks typically rely on sensors, radar, GPS, cameras, and artificial intelligence to deliver goods from one destination to another without human intervention. The most popular model is the Class 8 tractor-trailer, which can usually operate at Level 4 automation (fully independent within a limited service area). In September 2020, automated truck technology vendor Ike announced that trucking companies Ryder System, DHL, and NFI had reserved their first 1,000 Class 8 tractors. Ike’s services sell original equipment manufacturer units already equipped with Level 4 automation, with a yearly subscription fee for add-on support services. 

The operating model is limited to creating a transfer hub, where humans drive the trucks to a designated automated highway lane. The trucks then take over until they reach another transfer hub. From there, humans will take over once more and drive the last mile to deliver the goods themselves.

Disruptive impact

The integration of self-driving trucks in the transport industry offers significant improvements in efficiency and cost management. Trucks that operate continuously will expedite the delivery process, reducing delays and spoilage for perishable goods. This continuous operation model reduces relying on multiple warehouses, as goods can be transported directly to their destinations. For businesses, this trend suggests a shift towards investing in advanced logistics systems and a potential reduction in storage and distribution costs.

While the economic benefits are clear, the impact on employment within the trucking industry is a major concern. The transition to self-driving trucks could lead to job losses, particularly affecting older employees who might find it challenging to adapt to new roles. The industry might see a shift towards gig economy models for 'last-mile' delivery drivers, possibly resulting in lower wages and fewer benefits. To mitigate these challenges, companies and governments may need to focus on developing retraining programs and policies that support the workforce during this transition.

On a more positive note, the shift towards automation in trucking is not solely a narrative of job displacement. According to a report from Yale University, the introduction of self-driving technology in trucking could generate around 140,000 new jobs by 2030. These jobs would require higher skill levels, such as maintaining and repairing autonomous vehicle systems. Companies could redirect savings from automation into training programs, preparing the current workforce for these emerging opportunities. 

Implications of self-driving trucks within the logistics industry

Wider implications of automated, self-driving trucks being used within the world’s supply chains may include:

• Governments facing pressure to establish regulatory bodies dedicated to overseeing autonomous vehicles, ensuring safe integration into existing traffic systems.


• The development of specialized highway lanes for self-driving trucks, featuring advanced sensors and cameras, to enhance road safety and efficiency.


• The creation of new roles focused on managing, monitoring, maintaining, optimizing, and repairing automated trucks, reshaping the labor market in the transport sector.


• The expansion of autonomous technology into other transport sectors like cargo ships and trains, and industries like mining, leading to increased efficiency in logistics and material handling.


• A gradual increase in public trust and comfort with autonomous vehicles sharing the roads, marking a shift in societal attitudes towards technology.


• Widespread macroeconomic deflationary effects as reduced transportation costs lead to lower prices for goods and services globally.


• A notable reduction in transport-related emissions and improved environmental sustainability due to the optimized routing and fuel efficiency of autonomous trucks.


• A potential shift in urban and rural demographics as the need for traditional trucking hubs diminishes, possibly leading to growth in areas previously less connected by conventional transport networks.

Questions to consider

• How else do you think self-driving trucks can benefit the transport industry?


• How will they affect how goods are delivered globally?